TAIPEI, Taiwan – China’s suppression of protests in Tibet and missteps by the opposition Nationalist Party have created a close race for Taiwan’s presidential elections on Saturday, as a seemingly insuperable lead for the Nationalist candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, has shrunk swiftly.

      A narrow victory for Mr. Ma would give him a weaker mandate for his goal of pursuing economic relations with mainland China. An actual defeat for Mr. Ma, now a possibility although not yet the most likely outcome, would be a serious setback for Beijing officials, who have cultivated relations with the Nationalist Party over the past four years.

      Mainland Chinese officials loathe Taiwan’s current president, Chen Shui-bian, and his party, the Democratic Progressive Party, for pursuing greater political separation from the mainland.

      Beijing authorities have been wary of the party’s candidate, Frank Hsieh, even though Mr. Hsieh has repeatedly voiced much more willingness than President Chen to allow more Taiwanese investment on the mainland and more cross-straits transportation links.

      Mr. Hsieh and his party, with help from President Chen’s ministers, have moved swiftly to turn Tibet into a central issue in the campaign. They contend that Tibet’s fate is an example of Taiwan’s future if it does not stand up to Beijing.

      “What has happened in Tibet in the past three decades, and what is going on now, is a warning to us,” said Shieh Jhy-wey, the minister of information and a Democratic Progressive Party hard-liner toward Beijing. “We don’t want to have the same fate as Tibet.”

      Mr. Hsieh abruptly turned a campaign rally in Taipei on Wednesday night into a candlelight vigil for Tibetans who have been killed, injured or detained during the Chinese crackdown. Party activists unfurled a huge Tibetan flag and Tibetan students sang a Tibetan anthem.

      A huge television screen at the rally showed a documentary on Tibetan history provided by the Taiwan office of the Dalai Lama, as well as a short video of Chinese soldiers mistreating Tibetans. Mr. Hsieh’s running mate, Su Tseng-chang, has scheduled a “Support Tibet” rally on Friday morning while Mr. Hsieh himself has scheduled a “protect Taiwan democracy” election eve rally in Taipei on Friday night.

      With politicians from both parties concluding that the Tibet issue is hurting the Nationalists, Mr. Ma has focused on damage control. To the surprise of many even in his own party, he warned this week that Taiwan might boycott the Olympics if the Chinese crackdown in Tibet becomes more draconian and if conditions there deteriorate further.

      Known for his gentlemanly style, his reluctance to engage in personal attacks on political adversaries and his long-held desire for more cordial relations with the mainland, Mr. Ma has also rushed to distance himself from Beijing by using uncharacteristically harsh language.

      When Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China said on Tuesday that Taiwan’s future should be decided by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and not just by Taiwan residents, Mr. Ma condemned what he described as a, “ruthless, irrational, arrogant, foolish and self-righteous comment.”

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